Sunday 18 January 2015

Why are our politicians so ignorant of the real world?



As much as I want to get rid of the Bullingdon Club bullies in Downing Street, I have major doubts about Ed Miliband. He keeps quiet when he should be shouting from the rooftops and announces the most stupid policies which are ill thought out. Is he really surrounded by idiots and unable to judge their ideas on merit?

Take the latest example to dictate energy prices, ostensibly to make sure the benefits of a fall in oil prices are passed on. Doh! It is not the function of government to set the prices that a business charges its customers. Where are we going here, should business apply to the government to change their prices?

I didn’t appreciate it at the time but I was one of the first business students in the UK to study marketing in the 1970’s. How we laughed at business models where price was based on cost plus a gross profit margin. Price is what the customer is willing to pay. A business then judges whether it can meet that price and make a profit.

So how do you control excessive profits resulting from a failure of the competitive marketplace to function in the public interest. Governments have a number of mechanisms, they can introduce a one off windfall corporation tax (the threat should do), they can improve competition using the model that was intended when the energy companies were privatised and which the government at the time failed to fully implement. 

They can force separation of energy supplier from energy producer, as intended on privatisation. This should be done by forcing energy companies to float off parts of their business. This is what governments do, they set the market conditions under which businesses operate.  They do not stand apart at a distance from the business dictating prices. Stupid stupid boy.

I’ve been reading Al Gore lately and I am stunned by his eloquence. He almost writes in prose.  He puts it far better than I can, and incidentally makes British politicians look rather badly educated.

“The idea of making truly meaningful collective decisions in democracy that are aimed at steering the global machinery we have set in motion is naive, even silly, according to those who have long since placed their faith in the future not in human hands, but in the invisible hand of the marketplace. As more power to make decisions about the future flows from political systems to markets, and as more powerful technologies magnify the strength of the invisible hand, the muscles of self governance have atrophied.”

Wow – beautiful writing. He goes on,

“In the United States, many have cheered the withering of self governance and have celebrated the notion that we should no longer even try to control our own destiny through democratic decision making. Some have recommended, only in half jest, that government should be diminished to the point where it can be drowned in the bathtub. They have enlisted politicians in the efforts to paralyze the ability of government to serve any interests other than those of the global machine, recruited a fifth column in the fourth estate, and hired legions of lobbyists to block any collective decisions about the future that serve the public interest. The even seem to sincerely believe, as many have often written, that there is no such thing as the public interest


Well Ed Miliband, you need to start exercising those muscles of self governance. 

Footnote - David Cameron urges firms to use windfalls from cheaper oil to fund pay rises. Argh! Keep politics out of business decisions but ensure that markets function for the public good. In this case Britain has gone too far in restricting trade unions. Redress that balance of power and let workers negotiate pay rises. David Cameron is even more stupid than Ed Miliband.

Friday 16 January 2015

Apathy is Acquiescence.



Yesterday I received an email from Berkeley Earth, the independent climate science review body.  

Berkeley Earth has constructed an estimate of the global average temperature during 2014, including land and sea.  The key findings are:

1. The global surface temperature average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record.

2. For the land, 2014 was nominally the 4’th warmest year since 1753 (when the land surface temperature record began).

3. For the sea, 2014 was the warmest year on record since 1850.

One thing we should note here is that a few years ago Berkeley were quite critical of the IPCC and thought their conclusions abused statistical analysis. So those climate change deniers who made vast fortunes out of oil, the Koch brothers thought the masters of statistical analysis at Berkeley could be used as “guns for hire” to spread further disinformation. Koch brothers funded Berkeley to re-analyse the climate scientists data. Berkeley were much criticised by climate scientists for taking the polluters money. 

But scientific honesty prevailed and Berkeley duly announced after extensive statistical analysis, that global warming was real and this increase was entirely due to human caused greenhouse gas emissions. Berkeley were critical of the IPCC and expressed concern about heat islands (cities) affecting temperature readings, but broadly agreed with their findings. The Koch brothers withdrew their support but Berkeley found other funding and continue their work having set up Berkeley Earth.  Their mission “to monitor the scientific community and provide objectivity without concern for policies of government, industry or philanthropic ventures “.

However all reviewing bodies are by their nature behind the latest research. For example it takes 5 to 6 years to write papers up and get them reviewed, edited and reviewed again before they are accepted and published in scientific journals. The IPCC for example will only accept peer reviewed papers and so are several years behind the latest data.

Quite a lot of recent research shows that catastrophic abrupt climate change is with us now!

Why is this important, well one to one and a half billion people live close to sea level.  As the oceans warm, thermal expansion is causing sea levels to rise. Add to that loss of land ice in the Arctic and Antarctic which will have an even more significant impact and you start to see a worrying picture.

The IPCC are funded by the UN to review available science and advise governments. Contrary to the lies the denialists spread the IPCC do not do the research themselves.  In advising governments the IPCC stay on safe ground, they would rather underestimate the trends than open themselves to accusations of speculative claims. 

Guy McPherson for one, warns of catastrophic impact of climate change caused by the release of methane gases from the Arctic ocean. This research on Arctic methane release is not included in the IPCC models.
Paul Beckwith’s research concludes that  we are already committed to temperature increases of 5 – 11 degrees in the next 2 decades and a catastrophic sea level rise. Basically these guy’s are talking about human extinction within our lifetime.

So do you think immigration is a problem? What do we do when one billion people are flooded out and need to look for a new home. Man the borders, what a joke!

When the last IPCC report was produced on BBC’s Question Time, there were three climate change deniers on the panel and not one scientist to tell the truth. Shame on the BBC. When Nigel Lawson repeated old lies, no one challenged him. Shame on the BBC. 

We, that’s you and I, need to make sure that climate change is the biggest issue in the next general election.