Yesterday I received an email from Berkeley Earth, the independent
climate science review body.
Berkeley Earth has constructed an estimate of the global
average temperature during 2014, including land and sea. The key findings are:
1. The global surface temperature
average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global
instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is
tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record.
2. For the land, 2014 was
nominally the 4’th warmest year since 1753 (when the land surface temperature
record began).
3. For the sea, 2014 was the
warmest year on record since 1850.
One thing we should note here is that a few years ago
Berkeley were quite critical of the IPCC and thought their conclusions abused
statistical analysis. So those climate change deniers who made vast fortunes
out of oil, the Koch brothers thought the masters of statistical analysis at Berkeley
could be used as “guns for hire” to spread further disinformation. Koch
brothers funded Berkeley to re-analyse the climate scientists data. Berkeley
were much criticised by climate scientists for taking the polluters money.
But
scientific honesty prevailed and Berkeley duly announced after extensive statistical
analysis, that global warming was real and this increase was entirely due to
human caused greenhouse gas emissions. Berkeley were
critical of the IPCC and expressed concern about heat islands (cities) affecting temperature readings, but broadly agreed with their findings. The Koch brothers
withdrew their support but Berkeley found other funding and continue their work
having set up Berkeley Earth. Their
mission “to monitor the scientific community and provide objectivity without
concern for policies of government, industry or philanthropic ventures “.
However all reviewing bodies are by their nature behind the
latest research. For example it takes 5 to 6 years to write papers up and get
them reviewed, edited and reviewed again before they are accepted and published
in scientific journals. The IPCC for example will only accept peer reviewed
papers and so are several years behind the latest data.
Quite a lot of recent
research shows that catastrophic abrupt climate
change is with us now!
Why is this important, well one to one and a half billion people
live close to sea level. As the oceans
warm, thermal expansion is causing sea levels to rise. Add to that loss of land
ice in the Arctic and Antarctic which will have an even more significant impact
and you start to see a worrying picture.
The IPCC are funded by the UN to review available science
and advise governments. Contrary to the lies the denialists spread the IPCC do
not do the research themselves. In
advising governments the IPCC stay on safe ground, they would rather underestimate
the trends than open themselves to accusations of speculative claims.
Guy McPherson for one, warns of catastrophic impact of
climate change caused by the release of methane gases from the Arctic ocean. This
research on Arctic methane release is not included in the IPCC models.
Paul Beckwith’s research concludes that we are already committed to temperature
increases of 5 – 11 degrees in the next 2 decades and a
catastrophic sea level rise. Basically these guy’s are talking about human
extinction within our lifetime.
So do you think immigration is a problem? What do we do when
one billion people are flooded out and need to look for a new home. Man the
borders, what a joke!
When the last IPCC report was produced on BBC’s Question Time,
there were three climate change deniers on the panel and not one scientist to
tell the truth. Shame on the BBC. When Nigel Lawson repeated old lies, no one
challenged him. Shame on the BBC.
We, that’s you and I,
need to make sure that climate change is the biggest issue in the next general
election.
Nice quote on the global warming slowdown from Richard Muller, founder of Berkeley Earth.
ReplyDelete"When walking up stairs in a tall building, it is a mistake to interpret a landing as the end of the climb."